Methodology
Overview
This dashboard aggregates publicly available data to track the Strait of Hormuz shipping crisis that began February 28, 2026. It is infrastructure information, not geopolitical commentary. All data is provided under CC BY 4.0 license.
Data Sources
| Source | Data | Update Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| AISstream.io | Live ship counts via WebSocket | Every 60 seconds |
| oilpriceapi.com | Brent Crude, WTI prices | Every 5 minutes |
| Carrier websites | Suspension status, vessel counts | Manual, as advisories are issued |
| Windward Maritime AI | Fleet intelligence, trapped vessels | Manual |
| MarineTraffic | Ship position verification | Manual |
| JMIC | Maritime intelligence | Manual |
| Clarksons Research | TEU capacity, fleet data | Manual |
| Reuters, CNBC, Al Jazeera | Timeline events, price data | Manual |
AIS Ship Count Methodology
The ship counter collects live data from AISstream.io via WebSocket. On each request, the system subscribes to a geographic bounding box around the Strait of Hormuz (approximately 25.5°N–27.0°N, 55.5°E–57.0°E), collects vessel position reports for 8 seconds, counts unique MMSI identifiers (vessel IDs), and classifies vessels by type (tanker: ship type 80-89, cargo: 70-79, other). Results are cached for 60 seconds.
Important: All ship counts are lower bounds. During active military operations, ships routinely disable AIS transponders to avoid targeting. Electronic warfare in the region is also disrupting AIS signals. A count of "~0 ships detected" means zero ships were broadcasting their position — not necessarily that zero ships are present.
Oil Price Data
Brent Crude and WTI prices are fetched from oilpriceapi.com every 5 minutes. EU Gas (TTF) and US Gasoline prices are updated manually from public sources. Pre-crisis baseline prices are fixed reference points (Brent: $72.00, WTI: $65.00, TTF: $30.00, Gasoline: $2.97). If the API is unavailable, the dashboard displays the most recent cached price or a manually updated fallback.
Consumer Impact Estimates
Consumer price impact projections are illustrative scenarios, not forecasts. They are calculated based on: (1) transit time analysis comparing Hormuz route vs. Cape of Good Hope reroute, (2) historical disruption analogues from the 2021 Suez blockage and 2023-24 Red Sea/Houthi crisis, (3) commodity input dependencies. Actual impact will vary significantly by retailer, inventory levels, geographic location, and sourcing patterns.
Crisis Severity Score
The composite severity score (currently 9/10) is derived from five sub-scores assessed manually: Ship Traffic, Oil Prices, Insurance Status, Carrier Operations, and Military Threat Level. Each sub-score is rated 1-10 based on the severity indicators described in the dashboard. This is an editorial assessment, not a quantitative model.
Reroute Cost Calculator
Route distances and transit times are based on standard shipping route databases. Cost estimates use average VLCC operating costs and bunker fuel prices. Actual costs vary by vessel type, speed, fuel prices, and charter rates.
Known Limitations
- AIS data is unreliable during military operations (ships going dark, electronic warfare)
- Some data fields (EU Gas, US Gasoline, carrier updates) require manual updates and may lag
- Consumer impact projections are scenarios, not predictions
- Historical crisis comparisons use simplified day-by-day traffic metrics that may not be directly comparable
- The dashboard has no database — all data is updated via code pushes to a static data file
Update Schedule
- Ship counts: automatic, every 60 seconds
- Oil prices (Brent, WTI): automatic, every 5 minutes
- Oil prices (TTF, Gasoline): manual, updated at least daily
- Carrier status: manual, updated as advisories are published
- Crisis timeline: manual, updated as events occur
- Severity score: manual, reassessed at least daily
Citation
Please cite as: HormuzTracker (hormuztracker.com)
For academic use: "HormuzTracker. Hormuz Crisis Dashboard — Real-Time Shipping Disruption Tracker. https://hormuztracker.com. Accessed [date]."
License
All data and visualizations are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). You are free to share and adapt for any purpose, provided you give appropriate credit.
Contact
For press inquiries, custom data requests, or corrections: press@hormuztracker.com